Cheltenham Festival Races Dosage Profiles Analysis – Day Four

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CHELTENHAM 2022
DOSAGE PROFILING NOTES

    • All raw data can be found at www.pedigreequery.com
    • Further information on Dosage Profiling can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dosage_Index . Ben Aitken (www.narrowingthefield.co.uk) has also written several articles on Dosage Profiling and National Hunt racing including the book ‘Narrowing the Field: Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing’, which, although out of print, is an excellent starting point for this type of race analysis. Finally, in Episode 4 of the WRAP, I undertook a detailed explanation of Dosage Profiling and how I used it for (rather successfully) narrowing the field down for the 2021 St Leger, so that’s another good starting point.
    • Analysis makes no attempt to assess the above statistics for individual runners against the population of every horse that ran in the races, to arrive at an ‘impact variable’ for every number in the Dosage Profile of winners. It’s simply too time consuming, sorry.
      • The statistical analyses:
        Mean Average score of a column
        Standard Deviation A measure of how dispersed the data is in relation to the mean. Low standard deviation means data are clustered around the mean, and high standard deviation indicates data are more spread out.
        Median Middle number of the sorted list of numbers
        Mode Most frequently occurring number
        Actual Range Range of numbers in the column (beware backing any horse with   number outside this range)
        Working Range The ‘sweet spot’ range of scores which I will focus on when arriving at a shortlist based on Dosage Profiles. Call this an educated guess on my part!
        * An asterisked horse has points in every category i.e. has well-   balanced pedigree. Such types are often worth more than a second glance in race analysis
      • Dosage Profiling, as with any other method of race analysis, is not a magic bullet to be used purely in isolation. It should be used as one route to (value) winner finding amongst a myriad of valid methods any punter has at their disposal, from paddock watching, video-analysis, personalized form ratings, AI ratings, sectional timing etc. All I would say is that breeding analysis, particularly in a Jumps Racing context, is extremely under used – and as such represents a methodology that is relatively unique to the punter prepared to put the hard yards into understanding this approach to weighing up a race.
      • Looking purely at Cheltenham, I think this analysis has greatest potential in The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, The Bumper, The Plate Handicap Chase and The Foxhunters Chase and is of lesser importance in The Gold Cup, The Ballymore Novices Hurdle and The Triumph Hurdle. Again these are just gut feelings based on my eyeballing the statistics I’ve produced.
      • I have not analysed the (new) Mares Chase and the Mares Novices Hurdle due to lack of data. I’ve also not analysed the Cross Country Chase as I loathe this event which should not be part of the Festival. My analysis – my rules!
  • Finally, it should almost go without saying that in producing the 12-year Dosage stats for the Mares Hurdle, the ‘Quevega Effect’ is still very pronounced and skews the analysis more than somewhat. Proceed with caution if using the analysis I’ve produced for this race.

 

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